Thomas Robert Malthus (1766-1834)

The world’s population is growing exponentially, and the world’s agricultural production is increasing arithmetically. At some point the amount of food required to feed the population will exceed our ability to produce it. When that happens there will be social unrest and an increase in deaths caused by wars, famines and disease. The way to prevent such a calamitous end is to reduce the birth rate through the postponement of marriage and restraint from the temptations of premarital sexual relations.

At least that’s what Malthus said in 1803. Fast forward a couple of hundred years and the same story is told. This time it’s the World Wildlife Fund, as reported in Newser.com.

The Malthusian predictions never came to fruition for several reasons, some social, some economic. When the demand for food increases, the price of food will increase. That makes land that was once unprofitable to farm more cost effective. The supply of food increases. In addition, existing farms can be used more intensively growing more food per acre. The increase in food prices makes the use of fertilizers more efficient. The increase in food prices also encourages research and development in agriculture. New technologies are developed and land becomes more productive.

A colleague of mine tells me that we need to study history so we don’t make the same mistakes again. At some point, researchers will heed this advice and we will stop seeing the same stories we saw 200 years ago. Until then, stock up on food and water because the world is coming to an end.