On Low Voter Turnouts

Today is Election Day in Canada … again. With four main parties, and a host of fringe parties, we are going to the polls for the fourth time in 8 years. As in the last 4 elections, we can expect that, today, one out of every three eligible voters will choose not to exercise their right to vote. This begs the question of what, if anything can be done to increase voter turnout.

Journalists, political scientists, ethicists, psychologist, and other “experts” have tackled this question with no dominant strategy. The fail, we believe, because they don’t ask ‘why’ the electorate chooses not to vote. Once again, economists come to the rescue.

People are maximizers – one of the essential assumptions of economics. The implication of this is that an individual will undertake an action if they believe that the marginal benefit to them exceeds the marginal cost to them. When applied to elections, this means that an individual must believe that the benefit to them of casting a vote exceeds the opportunity cost of casting the vote. There are several other things that an individual can do with their time other than making their way to a polling station to cast an uninformed vote. An informed vote takes even longer and costs more.

In the riding where I reside, the incumbent won the last election by almost 7,000 votes, beating his closest opponent by 16.15 percentage points. I ask myself, ‘will my one vote change the outcome of this election?’ The answer is clearly ‘no’. Thus the marginal benefit to me of casting a vote is zero and the marginal cost is positive. The rational thing for me to do is not vote.

Some may argue that if enough people cast their votes, they could make a difference. This argument, however, requires that those that didn’t vote in the last election would have all voted for the same candidate. If the non-voters are randomly dispersed amongst all parties, then an increase in voter turnout does not change the outcome of the election.

If the economic argument is true, then there is nothing that can increase voter turnout in a meaningful way. Australia has made it mandatory to vote which increases the benefit of voting (avoiding the penalty for not voting). This method however is economically inefficient. You can force me to cast a ballot, by imposing a penalty, but since the ballots are secret, you cannot stop me from spoiling it. I will minimize my cost of voting by not becoming informed and spoiling the ballot. The law increases voter turnout, but not the legitimacy of the election.

So, Canadians, get out there today and vote … or don’t vote … but make your choice rationally.